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Given Imran Khan’s popularity, it is turnout, especially youth turnout, will decide tomorrow’s election. Rival moves can make it the most rigged one in the country’s history

On Feb 8, Pakistan will vote to elect its 16th parliament. No election in Pakistan has ever been anything like any previous one, and this time is no different. In the fourth consecutive election in the nation’s history, in contest is ‘the system’ – represented by Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif-led PML-N and Bilawal Bhutto’s PPP — and their efforts at maintaining status quo ranged against Imran Khan’s fragmented Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which fights without even a symbol.

Defiant Khan | Imran Khan — behind bars, booked in more than 200 cases and convicted in three — has yet managed to become a nightmare for his opponents, Pakistan’s power centres. Khan has remained defiant, despite an assassination attempt, political victimisation, and imprisonment – which his party believes shows his opponents’ anxiety.

Though it is almost two years since Khan lost a no-confidence motion on April 9, 2022, his popularity has simply grown, evident in the massive crowds he commanded during appearances in court. And for that very reason, Imran has remained sole focus of opponents’ ire, the cornerstone of their campaigning.

Turnout key | Over a short span of five days, Khan was sentenced to a total of 31 years prison term, convicted in three cases: cipher case (10 years), toshakhana case (14 years) and iddat case (7 years). 

PTI’s symbol was taken away by Pakistan Election Commission (PEC), a measure endorsed by Pakistan Supreme Court on technical grounds. This could severely impact turnout numbers. In the 2018 election, Imran pulled in a record 32% vote share, a 14- percentage point increase over the previous election, and won 149 seats in the 342-member National Assembly. Though short of majority, Khan had formed government with smaller parties and Independents.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in west Pakistan remains PTI’s base, but Khan has voters across the country. It is fear of a massive turnout in Imran’s favour that is pushing both PMLN and PPP to talk down the value of the vote, convince people their vote is irrelevant, and telling them that power centres have already decided poll outcomes. All this is simply to ensure a low turnout, the one factor that can defeat PTI.

Symbols matter | PEC taking away PTI’s party symbol was a lethal blow. Pakistan is barely 59% literate. Barring a party from its symbol makes the voting process way more complex for ordinary people. Without a symbol on the ballot, voting becomes inaccessible for unlettered voters.

After being denied their symbol, PTI and Khan focused on first-time young voters; the number has surged to 56.86 million. Party seniors believe it is this young population that has found common cause with Imran’s politics, and his plight. If mobilised on election day, it is this section that can alter the electoral scene.

Youth & social media outreach | PTI has been making a strong campaign presence on various social media. Even there, it was perhaps no coincidence party workers say, that all four online mega events suffered from such outages and slow internet speed that many could simply not access the internet to participate.

Both PMLN and PPP are controlled by political dynasts, the parties are run in like manner. Khan’s appeal among the youth is unparalleled in Pakistan’s history. It is they who see in PTI, and not the dynastic parties, the space to grow and to express political aspirations. It hasn’t been easy for these young supporters. They have faced police excesses from water cannons to arrests, abductions and torture to support the jailed Imran Khan. 

Iddat case | Back to back convictions were designed to shake voter confidence. But the iddat case has shocked supporters. The verdict is not only a mockery of 241.5 million Pakistanis but an insult to the 1.8 billion across the world who are Muslim. 

Exploiting religion for political ends at a time Muslims world over are battling Islamophobia and for women’s rights has created a wave of disquiet, ripples of a deep concern way beyond politics. Yet, power hubs have failed to recognise the reactionary public pulse.

Parties in fray | At opposite poles, PMLN and PPP both aligned with establishment-backed caretaker government. But PMLN has no traction on ground. PPP has its loyalists and but is satisfied with its political haven, Sindh. The multi-party alliance, Pakistan Democratic Movement, has buried their distinct political ideologies, and voters see them as a single entity, which makes it difficult to appeal to the voter who supports Khan. 

Attacks on Khan’s personal life are attempts at forcing him to compromise but he has held out. If he secures a deal or opts for self-exile, it will break the bond between him and the people of Pakistan. Even behind bars, Khan has dominated Pakistan’s politics. His rivals’ political strategy focuses on convincing the masses that he is as corrupt, manipulative and compromised as they are. But Khan’s ideology is sound, that even casual followers can articulate. Given the quagmire, Pakistan is set to witness one of the most rigged and fraudulent elections in its history. 

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