Who’ll win? Who cares? Why Pak elections don’t really matter
No matter who gets the keys to Islamabad’s govt mansions, Pakistan will be in heaps of trouble for months, perhaps years, to come. Pakistan’s polycrisis includes a lurching economy, security in Pak’s western borders going from very bad to awful and, most crucially, army losing at least a bit of its sheen.
Economic mess | Year-on-year inflation in Jan was a steep 28%. For many ordinary Pakistanis, buying necessities has become a luxury. IMF last year doled out $3 billion. But that was a tiny drop. Pak has $77.5 billion in debt repayment obligations over next three years, and its forex reserve as of Jan 26 was a pitiful $8.2 billion.
Border badlands | Tit-for-tat missile strikes between Iran and Pakistan last month – each apparently targeting bad guys given good homes by the other – show Islamabad’s neighbours have lost patience with its let’s-exportterror strategy. Even Taliban is getting antsy – attacks inside Pak by Tehreek-iTaliban Pakistan have spiked since the fall of Kabul in 2021. It’s the kind of prorogue that leads to full-blown militancy, as was the case in late-2000s.
Foreign policy tangle | Pak is already caught between a rock and a hard place – it loves China’s strategic CPEC projects but also wants America’s affection. But with US and China squaring off, Pak risks getting squashed in the middle. Plus, violence in West Asia can have dangerous spillover effects.
Munir-e-Azam | Pak army’s ongoing ‘hybrid regime’ model means civilian institutions remain infants. Army boss General Munir will call the shots on foreign policy and defence, and order civilian govt to make tough policies. That will make already mad Pakistanis madder. Pak’s general sahibs are no longer as loved and feared as they were – support for Imran’s PTI shows this. That’s even more reason army’s model won’t work. Which bunch of civilians governs Pak next is, therefore, irrelevant.
This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.
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